Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 187 months (from September 1929 to March 1945).
This means that every rolling period of 188 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 12.85% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +10.66% | +160.57% Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 | -67.84% Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 | 27.19% 497 out of 1828 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +8.41% | +179.03% Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 | -64.30% Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 | 30.63% 560 out of 1828 |
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.98% | +55.64% Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 | -54.64% Jun 1930 - May 1932 | 19.99% 363 out of 1816 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.34% | +56.79% Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 | -49.63% Jun 1930 - May 1932 | 26.21% 476 out of 1816 |
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.89% | +42.43% Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 | -42.65% Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 | 16.02% 289 out of 1804 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.37% | +40.21% Sep 1926 - Aug 1929 | -38.10% Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 | 22.17% 400 out of 1804 |
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.46% | +41.06% Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 | -27.87% Jun 1928 - May 1932 | 13.34% 239 out of 1792 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.31% | +40.55% Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 | -23.65% Jun 1928 - May 1932 | 20.20% 362 out of 1792 |
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.77% | +35.15% Jun 1932 - May 1937 | -17.97% Sep 1929 - Aug 1934 | 10.73% 191 out of 1780 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.23% | +33.81% Jun 1932 - May 1937 | -13.67% Sep 1929 - Aug 1934 | 19.49% 347 out of 1780 |
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.51% | +30.77% Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 | -12.68% Apr 1929 - Mar 1935 | 6.33% 112 out of 1768 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.13% | +30.52% Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 | -10.78% Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 | 16.23% 287 out of 1768 |
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +9.07% | +25.75% Feb 1922 - Jan 1929 | -7.76% Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 | 3.87% 68 out of 1756 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.99% | +25.54% Feb 1922 - Jan 1929 | -8.70% Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 | 14.18% 249 out of 1756 |
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.69% | +28.16% Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 | -8.26% Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 | 2.87% 50 out of 1744 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.75% | +28.53% Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 | -6.82% Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 | 12.61% 220 out of 1744 |
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.63% | +22.86% Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 | -7.16% Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 | 2.66% 46 out of 1732 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.04% | +25.07% Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 | -7.46% Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 | 12.47% 216 out of 1732 |
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.59% | +21.28% Jun 1949 - May 1959 | -5.38% Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 | 3.55% 61 out of 1720 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.88% | +20.41% Sep 1919 - Aug 1929 | -5.89% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 | 11.63% 200 out of 1720 |
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.51% | +20.03% Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 | -4.92% Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 | 2.52% 43 out of 1708 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.06% | +18.77% Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 | -4.00% Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 | 13.35% 228 out of 1708 |
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.59% | +19.33% Jun 1949 - May 1961 | -4.40% May 1930 - Apr 1942 | 1.71% 29 out of 1696 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +7.03% | +17.15% Jun 1949 - May 1961 | -3.96% May 1930 - Apr 1942 | 12.03% 204 out of 1696 |
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.49% | +19.73% Aug 1942 - Jul 1955 | -4.60% Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 | 1.60% 27 out of 1684 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.90% | +16.49% Dec 1948 - Nov 1961 | -4.26% Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 | 9.09% 153 out of 1684 |
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.50% | +20.46% May 1942 - Apr 1956 | -1.72% Sep 1929 - Aug 1943 | 1.20% 20 out of 1672 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.94% | +16.11% May 1942 - Apr 1956 | -2.76% Aug 1968 - Jul 1982 | 6.52% 109 out of 1672 |
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.34% | +19.24% Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 | -0.72% Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 | 0.24% 4 out of 1660 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.83% | +15.49% Jul 1949 - Jun 1964 | -2.46% Aug 1967 - Jul 1982 | 5.42% 90 out of 1660 |
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.23% | +19.22% Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 | +0.80% Sep 1929 - Aug 1945 | 0.00% 0 out of 1648 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.78% | +15.44% Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 | -1.64% Mar 1966 - Feb 1982 | 3.22% 53 out of 1648 |
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.12% | +19.34% Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 | +1.08% Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 | 0.00% 0 out of 1636 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.59% | +15.63% Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 | -1.51% Aug 1965 - Jul 1982 | 1.28% 21 out of 1636 |
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.14% | +18.81% Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 | +1.13% Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 | 0.00% 0 out of 1624 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.57% | +14.98% Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 | -1.23% Aug 1964 - Jul 1982 | 1.35% 22 out of 1624 |
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +8.02% | +17.88% Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 | +1.59% Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 | 0.00% 0 out of 1612 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.54% | +13.88% May 1942 - Apr 1961 | -0.83% Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 | 0.93% 15 out of 1612 |
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
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| Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rolling Return | +7.97% | +17.90% Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 | +1.60% Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 | 0.00% 0 out of 1600 |
| US Inflation Adjusted | +6.62% | +13.52% Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 | -0.58% Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 | 0.25% 4 out of 1600 |
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the page.
